By Steve Jordon | WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER

Mark Grieb’s business suffered when consumers cut their spending, grew slowly despite the recession and scored a sizable gain among consumers trying to save money.

All three trends during 2009.

Grieb is regional president for AAA Nebraska. The motor club’s three lines of business in many ways reflect the economic journey of the past year: Its travel business was depressed, auto insurance grew slowly and membership sales gained 10 percent as more people sought discounts and bought towing protection rather than new cars.

That’s why it’s noteworthy that Grieb, like many other business operators in Omaha, expects 2010 to show some improvement but still to lag behind the city’s best years, economy-wise.

A poll of 490 members of the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce, being presented today at the chamber’s annual economic outlook luncheon, shows that most of those responding expect that Omaha will at least be stable in employment, capital spending and overall economic growth in 2010.

Grieb, who is a chamber director, agrees, and he’s even adding a few jobs after cutting some positions in the past year.

“I think we’re going to have a decent 2010, but it’s a recovery year, without a doubt,” he said. “I would say we’re going to see cautious spending into 2010. We will not see spending similar to some of our better years.”

The chamber asks its members the same questions each year. Compared with the 2008 poll, this year’s responses, between Sept. 15 and Oct. 15, are tempered with a dose of recession-based reality.

Last year 35 percent of the chamber members in the poll said they planned to add employees in 2009, but only 19 percent actually have added people. While only 9 percent said last year they expected to cut jobs in 2009, so far this year 40 percent have made personnel cuts.

Only 11 percent expected decreased sales in 2009, but so far this year sales are down for 50 percent of them. Last year 32 percent said they would increase their capital spending in 2009, but only 22 percent actually did it.

As a result, their projections for 2010 are somewhat tempered: 28 percent expect to add employees, and 27 percent expect to increase capital spending.

Yet 54 percent expect Omaha’s economy to be stronger in 2010 than it has been this year, and 58 percent expect higher sales in 2010. And nearly half expect the economy to strengthen next year in Nebraska and nationwide, too.

Among business operators, said Eric Thompson, an economist with the University of Nebraska at Omaha, “I think there’s a natural tendency to be optimistic. They weren’t fooling themselves. They were maybe hoping for the best, and this year maybe with a little more reason.”

As the economy bottoms out, Thompson said, you get conflicting signals: a good inflation report, a weak jobs report; growth in one industry, a decline in another. But there’s reason for some optimism for Omaha and Nebraska, he said.

“Nebraska may have entered the current recession late, but the state should exit the recession on time or even earlier than other states,” he said. Agriculture and manufacturing tied to agriculture delayed the state’s downturn and will help its rebound, he said.

Jason Henderson, economist at the Omaha branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Mo., expects growth in 2010 but said it “may not be strong enough to spur robust job gains or income growth.”

Consumer spending will be dampened by high debt, increased savings and unemployment, he said. On the positive side, that means “relatively subdued” inflationary pressures, Henderson said.

Some businesses don’t depend directly on consumers but nonetheless are subject to economic pressures.

Bob Hinson, vice president for government programs at Northrop Grumman’s Bellevue location, said his company’s employment gains next year will depend on winning competitive contracts with Department of Defense agencies, and the agencies’ spending depends on federal budgets.

“We have made adjustments to become and remain competitive,” he said. About 600 people work at the Bellevue location, a number reduced slightly this year by some retirements and cuts to fit the work available.

Adding jobs will depend on winning and keeping contracts with the Air Force and other agencies, most of them at Offutt Air Force Base and some in other locations nationally, Hinson said. “We just have to position ourselves to try to win those contracts.”

The chamber’s outlook report says the city is “primed for growth” after this year’s declines of 2.6 percent in retail sales, 1.8 percent in employment and 8.5 percent in residential housing construction permits. Yet more than 130 businesses announced new locations or expansions this year, the chamber said.

Overall, Thompson said, business owners may not add many jobs until at least the second quarter of 2010. “I’m not saying it’s going to be their greatest year, but at least better at mid-2010 than in 2009.”

Contact the writer:

444-1080, steve.jordon@owh.com