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IOWA CITY (AP) — While Iowa’s unbeaten start does not compute with pollsters, it is playing well with the machines.
Iowa’s perfect start has been full of close calls that have drawn skepticism. The doubts are evident in the Top 25, where the No. 7 Hawkeyes (8-0, 4-0 Big Ten) rank lowest among unbeaten teams from BCS conferences heading into today’s game with Indiana (4-4, 1-3).
The computer rankings used by the BCS, however, absolutely adore Iowa. Five of the six mathematical formulas used by the BCS rate the Hawkeyes as the top team in America.
Forgive Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz if he’s not ready to believe what the machines are saying — especially after Iowa needed a touchdown pass on the final play to beat Michigan State 15-13 last week. He knows how thin the Hawkeyes’ margin of error will be the rest of the way.
“Computers have not seen us play,’’ Ferentz said. “If they had eyes and could see us play, they would say, ‘Are you kidding me?”’
That’s how Indiana felt after it blew a 25-point lead to Northwestern last week and lost for the fourth time in five games.
The Hoosiers jumped ahead 28-3 midway through the second quarter and appeared on their way to an easy win. Northwestern answered with two quick touchdowns, and Indiana never scored again on the way to a 29-28 loss that put its hopes for a bowl bid in jeopardy.
Indiana plays host to Wisconsin, plays at 12th-ranked Penn State and plays host to rival Purdue after today’s game, needing two wins for bowl eligibility.
“The players were really disappointed,’’ Indiana coach Bill Lynch said. “It hurt, and we had a long bus ride home from Northwestern.”
Though Iowa is a 17½-point favorite, recent history suggests that it could be a lot closer game than that.
For starters, Iowa has registered only one easy win, a 35-3 blowout of Iowa State, and already has set a school record with four wins by three points or fewer. The Hoosiers also have beaten Iowa in two of their past three meetings — and both were stunners the Hawkeyes won’t soon forget.
The Hawkeyes were ranked 15th in 2006 when they traveled to Bloomington, but they squandered a 21-7 lead and lost 31-28. That defeat kicked off a skid that ended with a 2-6 mark in the Big Ten.
The following year, Indiana posted a 38-20 win in Iowa City.
“The fact is they have beaten us two out of the last three ballgames, so we have to be at our best,” Ferentz said. “And we certainly have our cause for concerns on the home base here.”
Those concerns involve injuries to two key offensive players, running back Adam Robinson and lineman Dace Richardson. Both are likely out for the rest of the regular season after getting hurt against the Spartans.
The loss of Robinson and Richardson is another challenge for an offense that’s averaging 23.6 points. Iowa will start freshman Brandon Wegher at running back, and Julian Vandervelde will slide into Richardson’s spot at right guard.
“You expect every game to be close when you get this deep in the season, especially in the Big Ten,” Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi said. “We’re not too concerned about close games. We’d probably more concerned if there were little mistakes that were hurting us.”
Iowa probably could pick up some points with the human voters if it could win decisively today. But its track record suggests that might be easier said than done.
“The idea is to be there at the end,” Ferentz said. “That’s all we are really worried about.”
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