Shatel: Crunching some numbers, and this could be a close one

Are we having fun yet?

No? Well, maybe this will help:

Nebraska 21, Oklahoma 17.

Can it happen? Sure, why not? Will it happen? I have no idea. This was not a prediction so much as a way to illustrate a larger point heading into Huskers vs. Sooners tonight at Memorial Stadium.

Oklahoma is getting too much credit. Nebraska's not getting enough.

Folks this week have been talking about the NU-OU line, for entertainment purposes only. They can't believe it's so low. But if you look at this match-up a little closer, I think the sports book wizards are onto something.

First, start with two plays. A deep ball at Virginia Tech. And any of four turnovers deep inside Iowa State territory. Take those two away and Nebraska is 7-1 today and ranked in the top 10 and there is a completely different tenor surrounding this game tonight. Two plays.

Next, look at that Virginia Tech game. I know, I know. Nebraska has the worst offense since the leather head days. And Shawn Watson needs to go to play-calling school. We've touched on those points a time or two.

But go back and look at that Sept. 19 game, a 16-15 loss in Blacksburg, Va. The inept Husker machine had 18 first downs, rushed 36 times for 207 yards, threw for 136 (Zac Lee was 11 of 30 with two picks), averaged 5.8 yards per rush, 5.2 yards per offensive play (66 plays), had the ball 29 minutes and 46 seconds and was 6 of 17 on third-down conversions.

Moreover, that NU offense controlled the ball and, for three quarters, controlled the game and was good enough to drive inside the Hokies' red zone five times. The Huskers didn't finish with a touchdown, and that's why you lose. But, still, look at that production against that defense in that building.

Where's that offense been?

That day it wasn't Rex Burkhead (no carries) or Mike McNeill (one catch) or Niles Paul (one catch). It wasn't Zac Lee. It was Roy Helu, with 28 carries for 169 yards (6.0). If Helu is healthy, and they say he is, then feed the big dog. And feed him some more. Get him some rhythm. Stay with it. Was NU's offensive line really that much different then?

Better question: If you can come within a play of winning in Frank Beamer's house, should you really be so concerned about 5-3 Oklahoma coming to town?

Finally, let's play a little comparison game. I'm going to give you three scores and let you connect the dots: Virginia Tech 16, Nebraska 15. Virginia Tech 31, Miami 7. Miami 21, Oklahoma 20. Those three games were played on consecutive weeks.

So Nebraska is one play from beating the team that beat the team that beat Oklahoma.

That doesn't mean Nebraska wins tonight. But it illustrates how close all of those teams are; yes, how close Nebraska and Oklahoma are.

And yet, some folks are afraid Oklahoma is going to run the Huskers off their own field. Why? Both of these teams have great defenses, starting up front. They have suspect offensive lines. They have freshman quarterbacks. OU throws it better than NU, but not much better. OU ranks sixth in scoring offense, NU seventh. OU has rushed for 3 more yards than Nebraska.

Where's the big disparity?

Here it is: between the ears.

Oklahoma goes into every game believing it will win. The Sooners take care of little things, details. They finish games. They are doing this even in a year when a lot has gone wrong. That's the program Bob Stoops has built, and that's the reason — it says here — that Stoops is the top coach in the Big 12, year in and year out. So he hasn't won a bowl game in awhile? He can talk to a guy named Tom Osborne — a guy with three national titles — all about that.

If Bo Pelini's team is at any disadvantage, it's that it hasn't mastered the little details yet. There's still a lot for Pelini to clean up. And yet the Huskers are two plays from 7-1 and we would have a false read on the Huskers like we do now.

This team isn't that bad. This offense isn't that bad. It needs somebody to step up and make a play, a catch, a run, a throw, a block, hold onto the ball. Why not tonight?

The Huskers need some positive vibes. They need something good, something big, to happen early. Hello, Watson. Use some imagination, man. Empty the gadget drawer. Kansas State gashed OU with misdirection. It may not work, but it will be fun. And this offense, this team, needs to start having fun.

We all need a little more fun. There's so much negativity, including here. Some folks are dreading this game. There's only seven of these home games a year. Oklahoma is in town, Barry Switzer and the gang will be on the field at halftime, it's supposed to be a beautiful night. It could be a big night. Why not?

Contact the writer:

444-1025, tom.shatel@owh.com

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