Bob's Take: Oscar prognosticators have their say

We're still more than two months away from the Feb. 2 announcement of the Academy Award nominations, but that hasn't stopped Oscar watchers from making bold predictions about whose names will be read — even though many of the pictures said to be in contention haven't even been screened yet.

With the arrival of “An Education” and “Precious” last week, and “A Serious Man” shortly before, that time of year is here when award contenders start popping up regularly in theaters. If you poke around on Web sites and in print media, a few key names and movies keep coming up. In case you want to be in the know, here they are. But I reserve the right to make very different predictions once the pictures are screened, the reviews are in and the races approach the wire.

Best picture: With 10 films to be named this year, the list of possibilities is long. Most agree on “The Hurt Locker,” a summer movie about a bomb squad in Iraq; “Invictus,” Clint Eastwood's pic about Nelson Mandela and a rugby team; “The Lovely Bones,” a novel adaptation by Peter Jackson about a murdered girl who watches over her family and her killer from heaven; “Nine,” a musical based on Fellini's movie “8½” and helmed by “Chicago” director Rob Marshall; “Precious,” a gritty urban tale of poverty and abuse; “Up in the Air,” Jason Reitman's comedy about a frequent flier, filmed partly in Omaha; “Avatar,” a sci-fi blockbuster about Earthlings declaring war on another planet, from James Cameron (“Titanic”); “Up,” the latest Pixar animated masterpiece released last summer; “An Education,” about a Brit girl coming of age; and “A Serious Man,” a Coen brothers picture about a bad-luck Jonah.

That doesn't mean some of your favorites, such as “Star Trek,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Where the Wild Things Are,” are out of the running, because they're not. Late-comer long shots include “A Single Man,” about an English professor (Colin Firth) coping after his partner has died; and “It's Complicated,” a romantic comedy in which Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin vie for the affections of Meryl Streep.

Best director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”; Peter Jackson, “The Lovely Bones”; and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air,” are at the top of the list. Not far behind are Lee Daniels, “Precious”; Rob Marshall, “Nine”; and Clint Eastwood, “Invictus.” James Cameron, the Coens and Jane Campion (“Bright Star”) also are in the game. My money's on Eastwood, an academy favorite, for at least a nomination.

Best actor: I'm finding consensus that George Clooney, “Up in the Air”; Colin Firth, “A Single Man”; and Morgan Freeman, “Invictus,” are looking good. Close behind are Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”; Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”; and Viggo Mortensen, on a post-apocalypse journey in “The Road.” But don't count out Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”; Matt Damon, a corporate snitch in “The Informant”; and Robert De Niro, a wandering dad in “Everything's Fine.” I also like Ben Foster as a Marine delivering death notices in “The Messenger,” opening here Dec. 4.

Best actress: Count on it: Meryl Streep will break her own record as the most nominated actor ever with a 16th nod, for playing chef Julia Child in “Julie & Julia.” Likely company for her are fresh-face first-timers Gabourey Sidibe from “Precious” and Carey Mulligan from “An Education,” both in heartbreaking roles. Also getting good buzz: Abbie Cornish as poet John Keats' anguished girlfriend in “Bright Star”; Penélope Cruz in Pedro Almodovar's “Broken Embraces”; Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (about Tolstoy's private life); and Saoirse Ronan in “The Lovely Bones.” Some also like previous winners Marion Cotillard in “Nine” and Hilary Swank in “Amelia.”

Supporting actor: Names coming up often are Alfred Molina, an overprotective dad in “An Education”; Christopher Waltz, an SS colonel in “Inglourious Basterds”; and Stanley Tucci as a child killer in “The Lovely Bones.” Peter Sarsgaard is getting great notices as the older boyfriend in “An Education.” Others in the hunt include Woody Harrelson, another door-knocking Marine in “The Messenger,” Matt Damon as an athlete in “Invictus,” Christopher Plummer as Leo Tolstoy in “The Last Station,” and Anthony Mackie as an angry soldier in “The Hurt Locker.”

Supporting actress: Mo'Nique is looking like a shoo-in as the meanest mom ever in “Precious,” and Anna Kendrick is standing tall as a type-A upstart in “Up in the Air.” Other contenders Oscar has already smiled on include Judi Dench and Penélope Cruz in “Nine,” and Susan Sarandon and Rachel Weisz in “The Lovely Bones.” Don't count out Julianne Moore as a fading party girl in “A Single Man” or Mariah Carey as a drab social worker in “Precious.” Vera Farmiga, long admired as an actress, may finally score a nomination for “Up in the Air” opposite Clooney.

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