Ray of hope on unemployment

EXPECTATIONS RUINED (IN A GOOD WAY)

Mainstream economists had expected 130,000 U.S. jobs would be lost in November, not the much-less-gloomy 11,000 reported Friday. And they hadn't expected unemployment to ease from 10.2 percent to 10 percent.

WHAT HAPPENED

Hiring was surprisingly strong in the category of business and professional services — especially temp workers. In fact, temp hiring took its biggest leap in five years.

SO?

Temp hiring is considered a harbinger of broader employment, because recession-battered companies often hire temp workers first, before signing on more expensive full-timers.

ADDED NOTE OF OPTIMISM

The government corrected its job-loss data for October and September to slightly less glum figures. Altogether, many analysts said, the numbers suggest an economy slowly gathering steam.

SOBERING NOTE

The work force still shrank last month, and most analysts foresee unemployment worsening for several more months. Job losses through the recession — 7.2 million in two years — have fed the backlog of 15.4 million people seeking work.

WHITE HOUSE REACTION

President Barack Obama went to Allentown — the Pennsylvania city that singer Billy Joel turned into an emblem of manufacturing decline — to tout job creation. But his labor secretary, Hilda Solis, talked caution: “We're not going to be celebrating and jumping up and down” until jobs show a net gain.

MIDLANDS VIEW

The job numbers are “less dramatic for us” because unemployment hasn't been as severe in Nebraska and Iowa, said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss. Still, Midlanders can join in the general optimism that the economy seems on “a positive trajectory.” If this recession mimics the 10 other downturns since 1950, then jobs should show a net gain by early 2010.

WHAT COULD HELP

Goss and many fellow economists say that for employers, the big problem is uncertainty — about health care reform, taxation, cap-and-trade proposals, war tax ideas. Predictability would aid hiring.

LOOKING AHEAD

To spur job growth, Obama says he'll devote new funds to energy efficiency and infrastructure repair. But a second big stimulus bill, like the one passed in February, is impossible because “resources are limited.” He plans a speech on the economy Tuesday.

—World-Herald staff writer Roger Buddenberg

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