Omaha's overnight low: -4 degrees.
Today's forecast high: 12.
Omaha records for Dec. 15
Record low: -15, 1989.
Record high: 61, 2002.
Normal high and low: 35 and 16.
Where do we rank? The first two weeks of the month are the 14th coldest on record in Omaha.
Average December temperature through Dec. 14: 20.3 degrees, 7.8 degrees below normal.
Record cold through Dec. 14: 1919, with an average temperature of 9 degrees.
Chance of a white Christmas?
We're likely to have remnants of the current snow cover. There's a slight chance of a fresh dusting between now and Christmas, but — for now — no major storms are on the horizon.
Source: National Weather Service
As Omahan Joset Blake scraped a hard layer of ice from her car Monday, she had this to say about the weather:
“I was sick of it last Monday. It was supposed to be a mild winter. When is it going to start?”
People around the metro area have been asking the same question: Where's that milder-than-normal winter that had been forecast?
“Be patient,” is the response given by Barbara Mayes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Valley.
“That's the great thing about weather; it does change,” Mayes said. “Our chances are above normal that it will be warmer than normal.”
A turnaround is coming midweek, as the jet stream pushes the Plains' bitterly cold air toward the northeast, said Mike Pigott, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., The World-Herald's weather consultant. As the cold air moves east, warm air from the south will slide in behind it, Pigott said.
AccuWeather is projecting highs in the 20s and 30s through the end of the month, with some days flirting with 40s. The weather service does not forecast that far out.
The Climate Prediction Center, a sister agency to the weather service, projects next week's weather to be cooler than normal.
That could be consistent with the AccuWeather forecast of highs in the 20s and 30s, because normal highs this time of year hit about 35 degrees.
The first 14 days of this December have ranked as the 14th coldest on record — skewed from a more serious run at the record by unusual warmth on Dec. 1. The temperature that day reached 57 degrees in Omaha.
Eliminate that day's warmth, and the start to December ranks as the ninth-coldest on record, Mayes said.
Mayes said the snow cover is making it tough for temperatures to rise. Snow reflects the sun's rays, which means the ground can't absorb heat.
Natalie Umphlett, regional climatologist for the High Plains Regional Climate Center, said a recent study by a University of Nebraska-Lincoln student underscores this effect.
Abundant snow cover in December lowers the average temperature by about 8 degrees, the research by Braedi Brackey shows. Brackey is an Iowan majoring in meteorology at UNL.
Meteorologists still expect this winter, which doesn't officially begin until Monday, to be milder than normal because of the influence of an El Niņo weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean. Warmer-than-normal waters affect weather across the globe.
Mayes said El Niņo's effects typically don't show up until later in the winter.
“It's not unusual that we would not see a classic El Niņo pattern right now,” Mayes said.
The forecast for a warmer winter is based on average temperatures, so there will be cold days.
And, as Pigott said, warmer than normal might mean daytime highs in January that average 35 degrees instead of about 32.
Contact the writer:
444-1102, nancy.gaarder@owh.com
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