Barfknecht: Don’t bet on expansion of Big Ten

Now that the first overheated blast of speculation on the Big Ten’s possible expansion has begun to dissipate, let’s try a more sober discussion of the issue.

First, a few facts:

1) The main rule in a deal like this — now that Notre Dame has said no — is: “Don’t call us, we’ll call you.’’

Schools don’t apply to conferences with the power of the Big Ten. The league will seek you out, then go line by line through your business before even thinking about issuing an invitation.

In other words, the governor of Missouri and chancellor of MU can save their campaign to join the Big Ten.

2) The Big Ten has much to offer, and commissioners of other leagues know it.

“The Big Ten has generated a lot of revenue and exposure through its network, and it is a 100-and-some year-old league,’’ Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe said. “They have a lot of value.

“I’m not going to put my head in the sand and say they don’t. But I think we are in a good position to be an attractive home for all current Big 12 institutions.’’

3) Regardless of how many times you have read “the Big Ten doesn’t release its revenue figures,’’ there are hard facts available for comparison.

According to IRS documents reviewed by The World-Herald from the most recent fiscal year available (2007-08), the Big Ten reported about $217 million to share, and that each of its 11 members eventually received about $18.8 million.

The Big Ten is the only Bowl Championship Series league that equally shares all revenue.

In that same fiscal year, IRS forms show the Big 12 designated $103.1 million to share. Texas got the most at $10.2 million. Baylor got the least at $7.1 million. Nebraska was fifth at $9.1 million.

Look closely at that. A Big 12 school which moves to the Big Ten essentially would double its yearly revenue share.

Of the six BCS leagues, the rankings of which leagues shared the most money with members went 1, Big Ten; 2, Atlantic Coast; 3, Southeastern; 4, Big 12; 5, Pacific 10; 6, Big East.

4) If a Big 12 school gets invited to the Big Ten, it will pay a price to leave, though probably not enough of one to deter it.

Two years is considered “proper notice’’ to leave the Big 12, according to league bylaws. A withdrawing member forfeits 50 percent of its shared revenue during those two years — about $8 million to $10 million.

But that’s about how much yearly revenue would increase for that school by joining the Big Ten.

The percentage of forfeited revenue increases for a Big 12 school as the amount of notice decreases. If a Big 12 school departs less than six months after giving notice, it forfeits 100 percent of that year’s revenue.

The money situation, at first glance, makes it look like a no-brainer to move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten.

But put your athletic director’s hat on for a minute. If you’re Nebraska, Missouri or Texas, think about the tremendous added costs and loss of class time by sending your Olympic sports teams on the road in the Big Ten.

And think about an October home football schedule with consecutive games against Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota. Think that fires up donors of substance or Average Joe ticket buyers?

As a member of the grizzled veterans committee, I’ve seen the Big Ten dance this dance before.

Since adding Penn State as an 11th member in 1993, the league has looked into expansion possibilities every five years since — and not done a thing. The rumbling this time comes from football coaches who feel overlooked because their season ends two weeks before the other leagues.

So I went to two of my ace-in-the-hole Big 12 sources and asked: If you had to bet your own money, would you put it on the Big Ten expanding?

Both said no. As for a change in the Big Ten’s football scheduling, in order to move games to Thanksgiving weekend and beyond? Yes. But not a 12th team.

Contact the writer:

444-1024, lee.barfknecht@owh.com

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