Chatelain's NCAA bracket buzz

Chalk. Chalk. Chalk.

In 2009, every top three seed in the NCAA tournament made the Sweet 16. In 2008, all four top seeds made the Final Four. In 2007, every top two seed except one made the regional final.

The 2010 bracket comes out today, and any pundit who picks all the top seeds to advance deep into the tournament either doesn't have a backbone or hasn't been watching.

Look at the projected seeds. As conference tournaments proved, there's very little difference between a No. 3 seed like Villanova versus No. 7 seeds Marquette or Notre Dame.

Isn't it always that way? To a degree, yes, but this year the field has fewer high-caliber teams. After Kansas and Kentucky, there's no sure thing.

What's it mean?

Feel free to go heavy on the upsets in your pool. Expect a middle-of-the-road club from a power conference like the Big East or Big 12 (Georgetown? Baylor?) to get hot and make a serious run.

Two more reasons you'll see bracket turbulence:

I don't recall a season in which bubble teams were so bad. Teams like Virginia Tech could get into the field without a win over a top 30 team. That's unheard of.

This looks like a particularly strong crop of underdogs. Utah State, Old Dominion, Siena, Northern Iowa and Murray State all made it unscathed out of their conference tournaments. I'd be surprised if they don't supply some madness.

Hot or fresh?

Better to go into the NCAA tournament hot? Or fresh?

We have the discussion every season. When teams lose early in conference tournaments, some coaches say thanks. They'd rather lose, go home and rest for the big dance. Other coaches think it's best to get used to playing in a one-and-done situation.

Keep an eye on teams like Georgetown and Minnesota, who had to play four games in four days. And Syracuse, who lost in its first game in New York.

Bubble watch

Last four in
Utah State, Minnesota, UTEP, Mississippi State

First four out
Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida, Rhode Island

Dirk's projected Field of 65

West
1. Syracuse
16. E. Tenn. St./Ark.-PB
8. Northern Iowa
9. Oklahoma State
5. Maryland
12. Murray State
4. Wisconsin
13. New Mexico State
3. Temple
14. Wofford
6. Butler
11. Mississippi State
7. Marquette
10. Illinois
2. Kansas State
15. Winthrop

East
1. Kentucky
16. Morgan State
8. Clemson
9. Louisville
5. Michigan State
12. San Diego State
4. Baylor
13. Cornell
3. New Mexico
14. UC Santa Barbara
6. California
11. Old Dominion
7. Xavier
10. Texas
2. West Virginia
15. Sam Houston

South
1. Duke
16. Robert Morris
8. UNLV
9. Saint Mary’s
5. Gonzaga
12. Minnesota
4. Georgetown
13. Ohio
3. Tennessee
14. North Texas
6. Texas A&M
11. UTEP
7. Notre Dame
10. Georgia Tech
2. Ohio State
15. Vermont

Midwest
1. Kansas
16. Lehigh
8. Florida State
9. Siena
5. Pittsburgh
12. Utah State
4. Vanderbilt
13. Houston
3. Villanova
14. Oakland
6. Richmond
11. Washington
7. BYU
10. Missouri
2. Purdue
15. Montana

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