Where are the jobs?

Omaha's economy today is bigger than ever, the metropolitan area's overall gross domestic product having recovered all its losses from the Great Recession.

Retail sales recently rebounded nicely, too, the metro area having recouped almost three-fourths of sales lost after consumers in late 2008 cut back, according to figures on taxable sales.

But GDP, taxable sales and other economic-indicator terms don't mean a lot to Brigid Jenkins.

She's looking for a job. And right now, jobs are nearly as elusive as they were a year ago, at the recession's height.

“I've never had to really look for a job before — they've always just been there,'' said the 60-year-old Omahan who lost her job in December. “That's a real shock to the system.”

Despite impressive economic gains in a city and region that from the start have ranked among the least-impacted by the recession, job numbers here stubbornly continue to lag.

Omaha has yet to recover even a fourth of the 21,000 net jobs it shed during the steepest and longest economic downturn since the Great Depression. And Omaha, Des Moines, Nebraska and Iowa all have struggled to sustain meaningful month-to-month job growth.

A recent Brookings Institution study found that although Omaha and Des Moines remain among the major U.S. metro areas least impacted by the broader downturn, their job creation in the two most recent quarters actually ranked among the poorest.

Now there are new worries that the recovery nationally is sputtering, with another housing slump and stock market declines. And Friday brought mixed news on the national jobs front with a decline in the unemployment rate but no corresponding jump in the ranks of the employed.

Almost a year into the recovery, it's still been largely a jobless one — more so than even some here had predicted.

“I thought we'd have stronger job growth in the private sector by now,” said Scott Strain, an economist with the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce.

Strain and other economists say most businesses are managing their growth by asking more of their current employees and bringing in temporary workers. Business managers want to see a more sustained national recovery before they pull the trigger on new hires.

Questions abound.

Will the housing market sag without the homebuyer tax credit?

How will Europe's debt crisis and the continued high U.S. levels of household, business and government debt affect the economy?

What will be the impact of looming cuts in state and local government jobs?

“(Businesses) see demand is picking up, but they're also seeing a lot of head winds against the recovery,” said Jason Henderson, chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank branch in Omaha. “They're just cautious.”

In the meantime, Nebraska's unemployment offices remain very busy places.

On Thursday, a woman walked into the Nebraska Workforce Development Office near 60th and F Streets just minutes after she lost her job with a small manufacturing company.

Others seeking jobs — most of them out of work for months — searched job lists online, filled out paperwork and waited to meet with job counselors.

“I haven't seen a whole lot out there,” said 24-year-old Shanon Wurtz of Council Bluffs, who was laid off in April from his job with a north Omaha manufacturer.

Many companies are hiring only on a temporary basis, while others — able to be choosy — seek more experience than Wurtz has.

Diana Rodger of Omaha called the competition for the jobs that are available “fierce.”

“If you're lucky enough to get an interview, they'll tell you upfront there are 100 other applicants,” she said.

Though trained as an executive assistant, she's ready to broaden her search to other types of work, including customer service.

“If you're not willing to be flexible,” she said, “I'm convinced you won't find a job.”

It's been almost 20 months now since the economic dominoes nationally brought the recession home to the Midlands.

Metro Omaha saw its first major job losses in November 2008, almost 10 months after jobs started to decline nationally. Those losses mounted steadily and continued into early this year.

Still, Brookings — a respected public policy think tank in Washington, D.C. — a year ago ranked Omaha the 10th-strongest economic performer among the nation's 100 largest metro areas. Des Moines ranked 13th.

The rankings were based on the metro areas' lower job losses since the recession's start, low unemployment, more stable housing and below-average foreclosures.

A new study by Brookings shows not only that Omaha continues to be among the best performers over the course of the recession but that it also was one of the first to pull out of the economic malaise.

Omaha's GDP — the key indicator of whether an economy is growing or in decline — moved back into positive territory a year ago, about three months before the nation as a whole.

Then, earlier this year, according to Brookings, Omaha became one of only 32 metro areas nationally whose overall level of economic activity exceeded what it was before the downturn. Omaha also is one of only 19 to post economic growth for four consecutive quarters. Des Moines has yet to reach its pre-recession level of economic activity.

But Omaha's growth hasn't yet translated into jobs in the eight-county metro area that includes Douglas, Sarpy, Cass, Saunders and Washington Counties in Nebraska and Pottawattamie, Mills and Harrison Counties in Iowa.

In fact, the study indicated that in the first quarter of this year, Omaha was losing jobs at a rate higher than the nation. Omaha ranked 85th among the 100 largest metros on that measure. Des Moines was 73rd.

“Omaha has recovered its pre-recession economic peak, which is good,” said Brookings analyst Alec Friedhoff. “But you're still losing jobs.”

The chamber's Strain said federal job statistics paint a somewhat brighter job picture than the Brookings study, which was based on economic data from the credit rating and research firm Moody's. The Brookings study also doesn't capture job gains here since the first quarter.

Overall, the seasonally adjusted federal figures now indicate that the Omaha metro has netted almost 5,000 new jobs since the first of the year, beginning to reverse its loss of 21,000 during the recession. However, the most recent job figures indicated another slight dip in May.

Metro Des Moines has gained back 2,000 of its 13,000 jobs lost, while Lincoln has regained fewer than 1,000 of 6,000 lost jobs.

Nebraska and Iowa are both faring somewhat better on jobs than their largest cities. Nebraska has recovered about 10,000 of 34,000 lost jobs, while Iowa has gained back 17,000 of the 71,000 jobs it saw disappear.

Strain, the chamber economist, said workers who kept their jobs during the downturn are feeling more secure, and that has made them more confident to spend.

Seasonally adjusted retail sales in the five Nebraska counties in the Omaha metro area have posted five straight months of gains. Comparable figures for the metro's three Iowa counties were not immediately available.

However, in other ways the outlook again is growing murky.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said he's seeing less confidence in the recovery among the business managers he surveys, though their overall mood still favors growth.

“Things have definitely gotten softer,” he said. “Uncertainty is the big killer right now.”

Eric Thompson, director of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Bureau of Business Research, said job recovery has been slower than he expected. But despite the recent economic noise, both he and the Federal Reserve's Henderson still expect continued growth — here and nationally.

And, they said, at some point that will translate into jobs.

Increased GDP is nice, Henderson said.

“But at the end of the day,'' he said, “what you really care about is whether you have a job and a paycheck.”

Contact the writer:

444-1130, henry.cordes@owh.com

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