Survey points to positive results

The stock market staged a strong rebound Wednesday, and a regional economic survey showed positive results for the ninth consecutive month.

The MidAmerica business conditions index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, declined to 55.8 in August, from 60.8 in July and 62.5 in June. But it remained above the growth-neutral level of 50.0.

A similar, national report from the Institute for Supply Management rose in August compared with July.

Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss, who conducts the regional survey, said results appear to point toward slower growth, not a double-dip recession.

Regional job growth has been strong compared with other parts of the country, Goss said, with a weak dollar supporting higher agriculture exports. Those factors, along with lower energy prices, could mean that the Midwest and Plains states will continue to show more strength than the overall economy.

Goss said he asked supply managers what they expected from the U.S. economy next year. Forty-four percent of the respondents said there was a 50 percent chance of another recession, and 35 percent said a recession was likely or very likely.

Twenty-one percent said a recession in 2011 was unlikely or very unlikely.

Optimism about the economy measured by the survey dipped to 52.4 in August from 54.8 in July and 59.4 in June. It was the lowest confidence score since January 2009 and the fourth straight month of decline, Goss said.

The index for Nebraska was above growth neutral for a 12th straight month at 57.5, but it was down from July’s 62.9, Goss said.

In Iowa, the overall index was above growth neutral for an eighth straight month at 66.9, although it slipped a bit from July’s 68.2.

Other states in Goss’ survey: Arkansas, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Contact the writer:

444-1117, joe.ruff@owh.com

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