A new study from the Brookings Institution suggests that the Omaha area’s jobless recovery may be jobless no more.
The Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area posted nearly 1 percent job growth during the second quarter of 2010, the 13th-best job growth figure among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas.
The Brookings report also included some good news on the housing front, finding that Omaha-area home values could be primed for a sizable rebound.
A Brookings economist called the latest figures for Omaha good news but said it would be much better news if those trends kept going for another quarter.
“We are seeing a turnaround, and that’s a good thing — if it continues,’’ Brookings fellow Howard Wial said. “We just don’t know if it’s going to at this point.’’
Indeed, recent U.S. economic indicators have been, at best, mixed, though Warren Buffett earlier this week rejected the possibility of a double-dip recession, saying he’s bullish on a continuing recovery.
Brookings, a respected policy think tank in Washington, D.C., has been regularly analyzing how each of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas have performed during the nation’s deepest and longest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Omaha from the start has ranked among the metro areas most resistant to the Great Recession, and the latest report overall was its best showing yet. Omaha’s combined ranking based on jobs, unemployment, gross domestic product and housing stability now puts it fifth. Des Moines, also consistently among the top-rated, is 13th in the latest report.
The latest report, for the first time since the recession began, indicated quarterly job growth for the Omaha and Des Moines metros and for the U.S. as a whole. Omaha’s relatively strong growth rate was particularly noteworthy because it followed two straight quarters in which the city’s job losses were among the nation’s highest.
Overall, the Brookings report suggests that the Omaha area has recovered almost a fourth of the jobs lost during the Great Recession, the 11th-best performance among the metro areas. The average big city in the U.S. has recovered less than one-tenth of lost jobs.
On housing, the study found that the Omaha metro area’s home values were essentially flat in the second quarter, after falling more than 10 percent since the recession began. The second-quarter performance ranked ninth best among the 100 metro areas, with the average U.S. city seeing continuing housing value declines of almost 1.5 percent for the quarter.
The Brookings study also suggested that Omaha housing values could be in for a rebound.
Looking at how housing values in Omaha have historically changed relative to wages, employment and interest rates, second-quarter values here were 6.4 percent lower than would be expected. In effect, they’ve dropped more than twice as much as they should have during the recession, given Omaha’s economic fundamentals, Wial said.
“Even though Omaha didn’t have a big boom or bust, house prices have gotten too low,’’ Wial said. “I would think ... you’d be pretty safe in saying housing prices are likely to rebound.’’
Des Moines’ housing was also significantly underpriced, by some 6.6 percent. However, its housing prices were continuing to decline in the latest quarter, down almost 1 percent.
Other Brookings report highlights:
Ÿ Omaha ranks No. 1 in both unemployment rate and change in unemployment rate since the recession began. Its 5.5 percent rate was well below the 100-metro average of 9.7 percent. Des Moines’ 6.4 percent rate of unemployment was fifth-best.
Ÿ Des Moines, which like Omaha had in the two previous quarters posted job growth that was among the nation’s worst, saw growth of six-tenths of 1 percent. It has now recovered 15 percent of the jobs it lost.
Ÿ During the second quarter, Des Moines posted the nation’s highest rate of economic growth. Omaha posted economic growth in the second quarter, but the rate had slowed from what was seen in the first quarter.
Contact the writer:
444-1130, henry.cordes@owh.com
Copyright ©2012 Omaha World-Herald®. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, displayed or redistributed for any purpose without permission from the Omaha World-Herald.
