As Nebraska Republicans jostle for position or ponder U.S. Senate bids, the big question about the 2012 race hovers.
Will U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson run?
The decision can't be easy for the Nebraska Democrat, 69, who has endured heavy criticism for his support of the health care overhaul.
If Nelson runs, there is little doubt he would face one of his grittiest races since 2001, when he beat Republican Don Stenberg in a late-night thriller.
Nelson, for his part, stands by an earlier statement he made, saying he is leaning toward a run but that his focus remains on the next year in the Senate.
If he is in, the race will attract national attention and, probably, millions in outside dollars as both Democratic and Republican groups rush to safeguard or win a seat for their parties.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee began sniping at Nelson shortly after the November election. The committee sent out press releases the past couple of weeks that try to tie Nelson closely to the Obama administration. The efforts underscore Nelson's vote for the health care bill.
Several people close to Nelson say they expect him to run.
State Sen. Bill Avery of Lincoln, an active Democrat, said he thinks the criticism Nelson has endured over his health care vote has stirred the senator's “competitive” spirit, making it more likely that he will run.
“He thought very seriously about not running again in 2006, but I know we also had a lot of people urging him to do it.”
Tony Raimondo, a Columbus, Neb., businessman and one of Nelson's closest friends, says Nelson “loves” his work in the Senate. “If Ben didn't run, I'd be surprised.”
Nelson's chief political adviser and former campaign manager Paul Johnson also assumes that Nelson will run. “I would be surprised if he didn't. ... I think he has the passion and desire.”
Others close to Nelson — who spoke to The World-Herald on the condition that they not be named — say Nelson needs more time to make up his mind.
The senator's decision will have ramifications for Republicans and Democrats in Nebraska. If he doesn't run, the field of interested Republicans would grow. And Democrats would have to scramble for a credible candidate.
The decision may be a personal one for Nelson, who as a two-term Nebraska governor once enjoyed favorable ratings in the 70 percent range.
In recent polls, his job approval numbers lingered around 50 percent among likely Nebraska voters, up from a career-low approval rating of 42 percent in January, around the time of Nelson's health care vote.
The first part of Nelson's process will be deciding whether he wants to serve another six years in an especially partisan and divisive Washington, D.C. The Capitol in 2012 could be tough for a blue-dog Democrat like Nelson, who thrives on middle ground.
Or it could be right up his alley, as a moderate who likes to broker bipartisan deals.
The senator also must decide whether he wants to risk the possibility that he could end his career with a loss.
But Nelson has survived election battles in the past. He won his primary bid for governor in 1989 by a mere 41 votes, earning the nickname “Landslide Ben.”
He also lost his first Senate bid, a 1996 open-seat race with Republican Chuck Hagel when Nelson was governor.
But 2012 could make those races pale in comparison.
Nelson has come under blistering criticism for delivering the crucial 60th vote for President Barack Obama's health care law.
He also gained national notoriety over a provision in the original bill critics dubbed the “Cornhusker Kickback.” That provision would have exempted the State of Nebraska from paying the added costs of the law's expanded Medicaid coverage.
The provision was later removed, with Nelson arguing that he wanted all states protected from the underfunded mandate.
The controversy tarnished Nelson back home, as evidenced by the January poll.
Of course, timing is everything in politics. Voter sentiment that tossed Democrats from power in the U.S. House and weakened their hold on the Senate could abate over the next two years.
“If the economy picks up and things are looking a little better, people may be looking a little ... kinder on Nelson and the Democrats,” said Kevin Smith, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
Still, 2012 is likely to be a tough year for Democratic senators nationwide, if for no other reason than the number of seats the national party must defend and the GOP push to take the Senate. Nelson will be one of 23 Senate Democrats up for re-election, while Republicans have only 10 incumbents up. That means Nelson will compete with other Democrats for national party dollars.
So far, two Nebraska Republicans have said they plan to run for Nelson's seat.
Attorney General Jon Bruning, who announced an exploratory committee this month, is building his campaign coffers. He has about $700,000 left from his brief bid for an open U.S. Senate seat in 2008. By the end of the year, he could easily raise his total to $1 million.
Pat Flynn of Schuyler also has announced his plans to run. Flynn made an unsuccessful bid for the Senate in 2008.
Other potential GOP prospects include State Auditor Mike Foley, recently elected State Treasurer Don Stenberg and U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry.
In contrast, there is no heir apparent to Nelson on the Democratic side. Most Democrats hope Nelson will run again, said Jim Rogers, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party.
Nelson's toughest potential opponent — Republican Gov. Dave Heineman — announced shortly after his November re-election that he would not run.
Heineman's decision to forgo the race may make it more attractive for Nelson, said Smith, the political scientist.
“If you're looking at it from Ben Nelson's perspective, it is definitely a positive that Heineman is out of the picture. Heineman was clearly going to be a formidable opponent,” he said.
Smith and others say Republicans shouldn't assume Nelson will lose. “I'm not sure I'd put money on him, but I'm not putting any money against him.”
Contact the writer:
402-444-1309, robynn.tysver@owh.com
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