WASHINGTON — Can Rick Perry rebound from a troubled September? How will Herman Cain endure his first test as a heavily scrutinized candidate? And will Mitt Romney stay on his cool, steady course?
Those are key questions as the Republican presidential candidates meet Tuesday at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H.. The topic is the economy. The debate begins at 7 p.m. CDT and will be televised nationally.
The event, about three months before the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, will probably matter in small but important ways. "People don't know any of these people well," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, and debates are a chance for voters to get familiar and comfortable with candidates.
New Hampshire voters are already familiar with Romney, who was governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has a home in Wolfeboro, N.H., and finished second in the state's 2008 GOP primary with 32 percent.
Romney remains the unquestioned New Hampshire favorite. In a WMUR Granite State poll conducted Sept. 26 to Oct. 6, he was the choice of 37 percent of likely Republican voters. Cain, the business executive who vaulted to prominence last month by winning the Florida GOP straw poll, was next with 12 percent.
Trailing were Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 9 percent; former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who isn't expected to run, 8 percent; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 8 percent; and former Texas Gov. Perry, 4 percent.
But the poll also illustrated why the debates matter: 86 percent of likely Republican voters said they were extremely or very interested in the race, and 68 percent said they were still trying to decide on a candidate.
"Most people don't make up their minds till the end," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
So the questions become: Who can cement the image of a serious contender? Who can best push the economy out of its doldrums? And who can be the chief conservative alternative to the more center-right Romney?
Perry was seen as hurting himself in his three September debates and has continued generating controversy. But he nonetheless remains a serious GOP contender, some analysts say.
Cain remains largely unknown. In recent debates, Romney and Perry blasted each other's records, but no one seriously challenged Cain. That might change.
Cain fits a pattern that has been apparent all year, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University political research center. "We've now had four instances of Republicans surging," as conservatives seek an alternative to more centrist Romney, but none of the alternatives has had staying power, Paleologos said, referring to businessman Donald Trump, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Perry.
