Chatelain: Big Ten is good, but is its best great?

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In the past 20 years, the Big Ten has one national championship in men's basketball. One.

That's six fewer than the ACC, four fewer than the SEC.

The Big Ten this season is the nation's best conference. No debate necessary. It ranks first in the RPI. And seven or eight teams should make the NCAA tournament.

But is anyone good enough to cut down the nets in New Orleans?

That's a question worth asking after Ohio State slipped up Saturday.

A few weeks ago, the Big Ten bell cow appeared equal to Kentucky and Syracuse. Then the Buckeyes lost two games in eight days, combining for 99 points against the Michigan schools.

Ohio State arguably was the best team in the country entering last year's NCAAs before losing to Kentucky in the Sweet 16. When Jared Sullinger and William Buford returned to school, OSU became a title contender again.

But Sullinger hasn't progressed from his freshman year. And Buford has been very inconsistent. Without David Lighty and Jon Diebler stroking 3s this year, Thad Matta has nowhere else to turn for offense.

Which means that the Big Ten's best hope to break a 12-year national championship drought is the same program that won the 2000 title: Michigan State.

Tom Izzo's club has come a long way since losing to North Carolina and Duke to open the season. The Spartans' win Sunday at Purdue put them in the Big Ten driver's seat at 11-3 — Ohio State and Michigan are 10-4.

Michigan State and Ohio State meet in East Lansing the last day of the season. My guess that is Sparty wins, sealing not only a championship but a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Then the hard work begins.

Eight Elite thoughts about the tournament:

• Barring an 0-2 Valley finish, Creighton's thrilling win against Long Beach State locked up an NCAA bid.

If the Bluejays win out, I could see them as high as a No. 5 seed. That's good position to make a run to the Sweet 16.

• Does any team in the country have more at stake the next three weeks than Missouri?

The Tigers are trying to have the last laugh on arch-enemy Kansas before bolting for the SEC. They're trying to break Kansas' string of seven straight conference championships — Mizzou hasn't won one since 1994. They're trying to win their last Big 12 tournament, which happens to be in their home state.

But there's one other major carrot. The Midwest Regional is two hours down the road in St. Louis. And if Mizzou can win the Big 12, the committee will likely reward the Tigers with a No. 1 seed and a spot in St. Louis.

Remember, Mizzou has never been to a Final Four.

• No conference race changed more since last week than the Mountain West. It looked like a battle between San Diego State and UNLV. Then, suddenly, New Mexico grabbed control.

Steve Alford's Lobos, who weren't even in the at-large pool last week, upset San Diego State on the road, then drubbed UNLV at home, seizing a two-game lead in the MWC, which is statistically stronger than the ACC and Pac-12 this year.

San Diego State and UNLV, who both went 0-2 last week, should still get at-large bids (if they don't win the conference tournament).

• There's one more Mountain West team with at-large hopes: Colorado State.

The Rams, who feature four Nebraska natives in their rotation, stayed alive Saturday with a second-half surge against Wyoming. Ralston graduate Greg Smith scored 14 points and carried his team in the last 10 minutes.

Now the road gets tough. During the next 10 days, Colorado State faces the league's three best teams — New Mexico, at San Diego State, UNLV.

CSU is 33rd in the RPI thanks to a tough nonconference schedule. But it has only one top-50 win. That's not enough.

• Jay Bilas, the best analyst in the business, wrote a column last week for ESPN proposing the NCAA abolish automatic qualifiers to the NCAA tournament and simply select the best 68 teams.

That would likely eliminate the worst 12 to 15 conferences from representation in the tournament. However, it would give more representation to conferences like the Missouri Valley and Mountain West, whose middle-tier teams don't even get a sniff from the selection committee.

I like Bilas' idea of getting the absolute best teams in the NCAAs, but I think that every conference should have a qualifier.

One compromise worth considering: encourage low-major conferences to send their regular-season champion, not their tournament champ, to the NCAAs. Typically, the regular-season champs are much more capable of competing with the big boys.

• The NCAA hosted its annual mock selection committee Thursday and Friday in Indianapolis. Those receiving at-large bids in the mock bracket included BYU, Arizona, Alabama and Seton Hall. That's not a real high bar.

BYU has one top-50 win. Same for Arizona, which is 6-8 against the top-100. Alabama is 6-6 in the SEC West — ugh. And Seton Hall? Well, the Pirates went 29 days without a win in January and February.

• The bubble is bad enough that the selection committee should take a long, hard look at mid-major teams they normally wouldn't. Like Long Beach State.

The 49ers, undefeated in league play, are 19-7 overall with close losses at North Carolina, Kansas, San Diego State and Creighton. If they lose in the Big West tournament, they deserve a bid.

• If Dana Altman misses the NCAA tournament, he may look back on Thursday's loss at Cal as the game that broke his hopes.

Oregon led the Pac-12 leaders with 5½minutes left, then collapsed down the stretch. Oregon finished with 22 turnovers. The Ducks are now fifth in the league.

They'll have to win the Pac-12 tournament to get into the NCAAs.

Contact the writer:

402-649-1461, dirk.chatelain@owh.com

twitter.com/dirkchatelain

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