Our Oscar predictions

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VIDEO: OWH movie critic Bob Fischbach talks Oscars.

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The big winners at tonight's Academy Awards will be — I think — "The Artist" and "Hugo," and definitely in that order. I also predict local favorite "The Descendants" won't go home empty-handed, winning at least one and maybe two Oscars in a year unlikely to see any picture sweep big. Here's my take on the winners' circle:

Picture

Will win: "The Artist"

Possible spoiler: "Hugo"

Should win: "The Descendants"

Other nominees: "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," "The Help," "Midnight in Paris," "Moneyball," "The Tree of Life," "War Horse"

With its sweep of award season honors, "The Artist" looks unstoppable in this category. An upset here would be a shocker.

Director

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Possible spoiler: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Should win: Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

Other nominees: Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"; Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Best picture and director usually fall together on Oscar night, and Hazanavicius gets credit for the audacious idea of a silent, black-and-white feature.

Actress

Will win: Viola Davis, "The Help"

Possible upset: Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Should win: Streep

Other nominees: Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"; Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"; Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

It's Streep's best chance in many years (she's lost 14 times), a flawless performance, but Davis is the clear favorite after winning the Screen Actors Guild prize.

Actor

Will win: George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Possible upset: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Should win: Clooney

Other nominees: Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"; Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"; Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

This one's a tossup, and Dujardin would be no upset if he wins. But I'm tossing my online prediction of last week, hoping Clooney can reverse his SAG loss to Dujardin.

Supporting actress

Will win: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Possible upset: Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"

Should win: Spencer

Other nominees: Jessica Chastain, "The Help"; Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"; Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"

Expect no upset here. This one's looks like it's in the bag.

Supporting actor

Will win: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Possible upset: Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

Should win: Plummer

Other nominees: Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"; Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"; Nick Nolte, "Warrior"

Plummer, 82, is heavily favored to become the oldest supporting-actor winner ever.

Original screenplay

Will win: Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

Possible upset: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Should win: Allen

Other nominees: "Bridesmaids," "Margin Call," "A Separation"

Hazanavicius will likely bow to Allen here, the all-time most-nominated movie writer with 15 nods and two wins.

Adapted screenplay

Will win: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rasch, "The Descendants"

Possible upset: Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, "Moneyball"

Should win: Payne and company

Other nominees: "Hugo," "The Ides of March," "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

This is actually a race. Zaillian and Sorkin are both past winners, but most prognosticators favor Omaha's own to win his second Academy Award.

Foreign-language film

Will win: "A Separation," Iran

Possible upset: "In Darkness," Poland

Should win: ?

Other nominees: "Bullhead," Belgium; "Footnote," Israel; "Monsieur Lazhar," Canada

I haven't seen any of the nominees, but "A Separation" has gotten unanimous raves, plus a screenplay nomination. Close to a shoo-in.

Animated feature

Will win: "Rango"

Possible upset: "Chico and Rita"

Should win: ?

Other nominees: "A Cat in Paris," "Kung Fu Panda 2," "Puss in Boots"

Haven't seen three of the nominees, but I loved the heavily favored "Rango."

Documentary feature

Will win: "Paradise Lost: Purgatory 3"

Possible upset: "Undefeated"

Should win: ?

Other nominees: "Hell and Back Again," "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front," "Pina"

I've seen just one nominee in this category, "Pina." Prognosticators are quite divided, so take your pick.

Cinematography

Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "The Tree of Life"

Possible upset: Robert Richardson, "Hugo"

Should win: "The Tree of Life"

Other nominees: "The Artist," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "War Horse"

"The Artist" has a chance here, if sweep mode sets in. But Lubezki's images elevated Terrence Malick's film and won the American Society of Cinematographers' top prize.

Editing

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius and Anne-Sophie Bion, "The Artist"

Possible upset: Thelma Schoonmaker, "Hugo"

Should win: "Hugo"

Other nominees: "The Descendants," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "Moneyball"

Schoonmaker has seven nods and three wins to her credit, but the American Cinema Editors awards went to "The Descendants" (drama) and "The Artist" (comedy).

Art direction

Will win: "Hugo"

Possible upset: "The Artist"

Should win: "Hugo"

Other nominees: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2," "Midnight in Paris," "War Horse"

Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo of "Hugo" were winners at the Art Directors Guild awards, and their work was eye-popping.

Costumes

Will win: Mark Bridges, "The Artist"

Possible upset: Sandy Powell, "Hugo"

Should win: Michael O'Connor, "Jane Eyre"

Other nominees: "Anonymous," "W.E."

Honestly, this one could land most anywhere, including for Madonna's "W.E."

Makeup

Will win: "The Iron Lady"

Possible upset: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"

Should win: "The Iron Lady"

Other nominee: "Albert Nobbs"

Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland made Streep a virtual double of Margaret Thatcher.

Original score

Will win: Ludovic Bource, "The Artist"

Possible upset: Alberto Iglesias, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Should win: "The Artist"

Other nominees: "The Adventures of Tintin," "Hugo," "War Horse"

For a movie without sound, music is everything. And it was for "The Artist."

Song

Will win: "Man or Muppet," "The Muppets"

Possible upset: "Real in Rio," "Rio"

Should win: ?

Other nominees: None

Didn't see "Rio," but with just two nominees in this category, my odds look good!

Sound editing

Will win: "Hugo"

Possible upset: "War Horse"

Should win: "Hugo"

Other nominees: "Drive," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

"Dragon Tattoo" is skillfully crafted, too, so pick your favorite in a tossup category.

Sound mixing

Will win: "Hugo"

Possible upset: "War Horse"

Should win: "Hugo"

Other nominees: "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "Moneyball," "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

Are war sounds harder to do well than train-wreck sounds? Gee, I dunno.

Visual effects

Will win: "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

Possible upset: "Hugo"

Should win: ?

Other nominees: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2," "Real Steel," "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

Didn't see three of the nominees, but I can tell you "Apes" is on a lot of prediction lists.

Short films

These categories are always impossible to predict, so I won't. But I'll confess my favorites are "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" for animated (other nominees: "Dimanche/Sunday," "La Luna," "A Morning Stroll," "Wild Life"); and "The Shore" or "Tuba Atlantic" for live-action (other nominees: "Pentecost," "Raju," "Time Freak").

I haven't seen the documentary shorts. Some are predicting "Saving Face," about Pakistani women recovering from acid attacks. Other nominees: "The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement," "God Is the Bigger Elvis," "Incident at New Baghdad," "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom."

Contact the writer:402-444-1269, bob.fischbach@owh.com

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