Nebraska experiences first winter COVID lull as cases hit lowest point since April

COVID-19 cases in Nebraska hit a nine-month low last week with the state apparently experiencing something it has never seen during the three-year pandemic — a winter lull.

Nebraska reported 924 cases for the week ending Wednesday, down 38% from 1,486 the previous week, according to data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was the first time new cases in Nebraska had dropped below 1,000 since the first week of May, and it’s the lowest case level since late April.

All other indicators, including hospitalizations, also point to falling virus levels.

Nebraska cases have been below 2,000 for four straight weeks after hitting a recent peak of 3,900 just before Christmas.

Nebraska previously has seen extended periods where cases have dropped to those levels. But only during spring, summer and early fall — never before when the weather has turned colder and people have retreated indoors and gathered for the holidays.

To be sure, case counts no longer are considered as accurate a measure of virus activity as they once were. Many people no longer are testing or are using at-home tests that aren’t reported to health departments.

Dr. Bob Rauner, president of Partnership for a Healthy Lincoln, said that to monitor the virus these days, he typically looks at data based on wastewater sampling results and COVID-19 hospitalizations. Those measures, he said, also are showing reduced virus levels.

Hospitalizations for COVID also decreased last week, by 18% in the U.S. and by 17% in Nebraska. Both hospitalizations and new hospital admissions for COVID also were down in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic states, which had seen a significant spike since shortly after the holidays.

Those two also are regions where a new highly transmissible version of the virus, XBB.1.5, made up an estimated 84% or more of the positive samples to undergo genomic sequencing. In Nebraska, that variant made up 6% of samples sequenced in the week ending Jan. 14.

Rauner said he also monitors Bryan Health’s COVID dashboard for insight into who is being hospitalized with the virus. On Jan. 22, a total of 17 patients were hospitalized. Fifteen were not up to date on their vaccines, meaning they had not received the latest booster. Of the two who were up to date, both fell into the higher-risk 65-and-older age bracket.

“If you’re up to date on your vaccines, most people don’t have much to worry about,” Rauner said.

Most people, he said, can — and are — living life pretty much as normal now. They once again are gathering in large numbers in restaurants, stores and public events. Mask-wearing in such settings has become rare.

Rauner, who is up to date on his vaccines and in his 50s, said he wears a mask only when he’s in an airport or at a health care facility.

Rauner said older people and those at higher risk because of a medical condition should get the antiviral drug Paxlovid if they contract the virus, even if they are up to date on their shots.

But he said there is no evidence yet that the coronavirus has become a seasonal virus, like its common cold-causing cousins.

More likely, he said, it is human behavior that is seasonal, because people tend to congregate indoors in groups at certain times of the year.

A University of Nebraska Medical Center epidemiologist recently said he did not expect the state to see dramatic spikes in COVID cases as in the past, as large numbers of previous infections and two years of vaccinations and boosters have left the population with a rough patchwork of immunity. The future of the virus will remain unpredictable.

Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration is considering shifting the nation’s COVID vaccine strategy to an approach similar to that used for the influenza vaccine, NPR reported Monday.

The aim would be to simplify vaccination for COVID-19, possibly relying on annual updates corresponding to whatever strain of the virus is circulating. An agency advisory committee is scheduled to consider the proposal Thursday.

The meeting comes as all but four states reported declining numbers last week. Nebraska was one of a dozen to see cases decline by one-third or more. U.S. cases overall have been falling since early January.

Nebraska’s case rate is currently the ninth lowest nationally. Most of its neighbors also rank in the bottom third among states, with Iowa currently 12th lowest.

COVID-19, however, remains a deadly disease for some. Nebraska over the past four months has reported an average of 13 new deaths a week. The total death toll for the three-year pandemic is 4,734.

Meanwhile, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, continue to decline across the country, with three regions dropping below their baseline for outpatient respiratory illness for the first time since October. Nebraska’s flu activity was rated low for the first time in weeks.